Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
1
(0.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
9-3-1
overall winrate
73.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
74.4%
avg ELO +10.2 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1366
· median 1366
· range 1366–1366
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 42.6% | -4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.5% | +20.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +22.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
