Water Crux MageTier 3
at Ascent Taipei
decks
2
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
5-8-3
overall winrate
40.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
44.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1383
· median 1383
· range 1338–1427
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.8% | -11.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.7% | +26.7 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
