Water NeosTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
3
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
12-12-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1276
· range 1249–1340
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.3% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 35.0% | -8.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 77.1% | +20.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.9% | +27.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.5 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
