Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
26
(10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
174
69-84-21
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.0%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
44.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1309
· median 1263
· range 1123–1694
(26 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 27 | 11-10-6 | 51.9% | 51.6% | 47.0% | -1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 24 | 8-14-2 | 37.5% | 39.3% | 38.4% | -4.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 18 | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 40.9% | 36.2% | -5.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 12 | 3-7-2 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 45.2% | -2.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 17 | 11-5-1 | 67.6% | 64.3% | 61.3% | +4.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 9 | 1-6-2 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 31.5% | -8.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 8 | 1-5-2 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -5.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 9 | 1-6-2 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 34.9% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -0.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 22.9% | -20.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.2% | +11.3 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.2% | -9.5 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -25.8 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.6 |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 26 from this event
The 26 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Sadi, Blood Harvester, Resolute Stand, Scout the Land. Losers more often ran: Blackmarket Broker, Zephyr, Betraying Blade.
Sadi, Blood Harvester
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Scout the Land
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Sable Remnant
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Fragmented Spirit of Wind
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Blackmarket Broker
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Betraying Blade
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Spirit of Wind
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Shadow Resonance
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Show all 82 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.58 | 7 | 0 | 5 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.58 | 1 | 8 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.42 | 2 | 7 | 2 | |
| Betraying Blade | -0.42 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Wind | -0.33 | 1 | 5 | 5 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.33 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -0.33 | 1 | 5 | 5 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 5 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
| Sharpen Blade | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 8 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.17 | 4 | 6 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.17 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Slip Away | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Final Stroke | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.08 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| Grim Foreboding | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Shadeblood Coating | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shifting Mirage | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusksoul Stone | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Headhunter | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bushwhack Bandit | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Curved Dagger | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloaked Executioner | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malignant Athame | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Revenant’s Scourge | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Accepted Contract | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Haunting Demise | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| Imperial Spy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extortion Scheme | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |