Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
5
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
40
19-15-6
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1272
· range 1149–1550
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 29.5% | -11.0 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.6% | -7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 32.6% | -11.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.4% | -26.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 72.2% | +14.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.2% | +20.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 6 | 3-0-3 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 66.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
