Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 39.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 9 | 8-0-1 | 94.4% | 80.8% | 79.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 58.1% | +3.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 17.0% | -19.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 71.1% | +13.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.0% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.8% | -20.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -3.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.4 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.3% | -19.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Caliburn of Silencing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oasis Trading Post | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |