Fire SlimesTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
decks
14
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
92
39-43-10
overall winrate
47.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1272
· median 1274
· range 1028–1630
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 11 | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 37.0% | -5.7 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 11 | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 9 | 6-1-2 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 68.5% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +1.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 66.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 7 | 0-5-2 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 27.8% | -11.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 70.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.6% | +26.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.0% | -5.2 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.8% | +20.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Gaia's Songbird, Reprogram, Quicksilver Grail. Losers more often ran: Red Slime, Tariff Ring, Ethereal Slime.
Gaia's Songbird
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tera Sight
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Red Slime
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Ethereal Slime
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Verdant Slime
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Slime | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Beastbond Paws | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tera Sight | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Verdant Slime | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Twilight Slime | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mechanical Hare | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Vampiric Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Empowering Prayer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Totem | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |