Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Taipei
decks
17
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
134
57-56-21
overall winrate
50.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.5%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301
· median 1293
· range 1069–1501
(17 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1176
Q3 1393
1730
18% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
6% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 15 | 4-5-6 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 43.7% | -2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 10 | 7-3-0 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 64.5% | +6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 13 | 7-5-1 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 52.6% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 12 | 7-3-2 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 54.8% | +2.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 11 | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 30.0% | 21.9% | -12.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -1.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 44.8% | -2.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 41.9% | -3.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 39.4% | -5.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 11 | 2-5-4 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -6.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 67.4% | +11.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -2.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.5% | -20.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 17 from this event
The 17 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sudden Steel, Hasty Messenger, Library Witch. Losers more often ran: Spirit Blade: Ascension, Prismatic Edge, Incarnate Majesty.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Morgan, Soul Guide
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Prismatic Edge
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Incarnate Majesty
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Purge in Flames
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Devastating Blow
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudden Steel | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 |