Fire Crux HybridTier 2
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 12 | 9-3-0 | 75.0% | 68.8% | 68.2% | +7.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.4% | -6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 11 | 5-2-4 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 65.2% | +6.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.4% | -16.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 71.4% | +16.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |