EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Las Vegas.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 17 | 5.2% | 168 | 64.9% | 60.6% | 58.7% | 56.2% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crescendo | 1 | 0.3% | 15 | 76.7% | 59.6% | 54.9% | 51.3% | 1637 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 32 | 9.8% | 266 | 57.0% | 52.8% | 54.5% | 51.1% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 11 | 3.4% | 97 | 58.8% | 62.1% | 54.0% | 56.8% | 1342 | — |
| 5 | Water Exia | 13 | 4.0% | 108 | 53.2% | 51.3% | 52.5% | 52.4% | 1345 | — |
| 6 | Wind Exia | 1 | 0.3% | 10 | 60.0% | 63.1% | 52.4% | 56.2% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 19 | 5.8% | 158 | 53.8% | 53.6% | 52.0% | 52.3% | 1369 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 10 | 3.1% | 82 | 54.3% | 52.6% | 51.5% | 51.1% | 1333 | — |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 11 | 3.4% | 90 | 53.3% | 47.1% | 51.5% | 49.0% | 1376 | — |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 13 | 4.0% | 113 | 51.8% | 51.1% | 50.8% | 50.6% | 1351 | — |
| 11 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 11 | 3.4% | 86 | 49.4% | 54.0% | 50.6% | 52.9% | 1304 | — |
| 12 | Wind Neos | 2 | 0.6% | 18 | 52.8% | 57.5% | 50.5% | 53.0% | 1290 | — |
| 13 | Wind Allies | 1 | 0.3% | 13 | 65.4% | 62.0% | 50.4% | 49.4% | 1480 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 1.2% | 36 | 48.6% | 52.1% | 50.3% | 51.8% | 1339 | — |
| 15 | Wind Astra Cleric | 8 | 2.5% | 73 | 53.4% | 50.8% | 50.2% | 48.8% | 1324 | — |
| 16 | Water Byakko | 1 | 0.3% | 10 | 55.0% | 39.5% | 49.9% | 46.0% | 1343 | — |
| 17 | Fire Suited | 7 | 2.2% | 67 | 49.3% | 52.3% | 49.9% | 51.8% | 1317 | — |
| 18 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 0.6% | 15 | 50.0% | 43.7% | 49.9% | 48.4% | 1277 | — |
| 19 | Water Tera Kongming | 2 | 0.6% | 22 | 56.8% | 55.5% | 49.4% | 48.6% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Fire Crux Mage | 9 | 2.8% | 66 | 47.7% | 44.3% | 49.4% | 48.7% | 1301 | — |
| 21 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 0.3% | 9 | 55.6% | 53.2% | 49.3% | 49.4% | 1278 | — |
| 22 | Horse and Taxes | 7 | 2.2% | 57 | 45.6% | 49.2% | 49.1% | 50.7% | 1297 | — |
| 23 | Water Allies | 1 | 0.3% | 9 | 50.0% | 52.6% | 49.0% | 50.0% | 1327 | — |
| 24 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 7 | 2.2% | 67 | 56.0% | 58.7% | 49.0% | 50.1% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 25 | Water Astra Ranger | 3 | 0.9% | 15 | 40.0% | 48.3% | 48.8% | 50.3% | 1292 | — |
| 26 | Fire Aetherwing | 11 | 3.4% | 85 | 49.4% | 52.3% | 48.7% | 50.6% | 1310 | — |
| 27 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 10 | 3.1% | 78 | 49.4% | 48.7% | 48.6% | 49.4% | 1344 | — |
| 28 | Water Tera Diao Chan | 2 | 0.6% | 18 | 50.0% | 54.6% | 48.2% | 49.6% | 1315 | — |
| 29 | Water Tera Cleric | 2 | 0.6% | 13 | 34.6% | 39.6% | 48.2% | 48.1% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 0.3% | 9 | 50.0% | 40.7% | 47.9% | 44.1% | 1371 | — |
| 31 | Water Luxem Assassin | 4 | 1.2% | 31 | 41.9% | 34.1% | 47.8% | 44.2% | 1327 | — |
| 32 | Fire Exia | 5 | 1.5% | 34 | 48.5% | 55.1% | 47.7% | 51.3% | 1261 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 13 | 4.0% | 99 | 48.0% | 44.4% | 47.6% | 46.0% | 1309 | — |
| 34 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 0.3% | 9 | 55.6% | 64.0% | 47.5% | 50.9% | 1338 | — |
| 35 | Fire Oblation | 18 | 5.5% | 140 | 48.6% | 50.6% | 47.5% | 48.6% | 1330 | — |
| 36 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.3% | 9 | 33.3% | 44.9% | 47.2% | 49.3% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Wind Arcane | 4 | 1.2% | 26 | 28.8% | 33.8% | 47.2% | 47.5% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 25.2% | 46.8% | 46.0% | 1353 | — |
| 39 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 0.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 59.7% | 46.6% | 52.6% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 40 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.3% | 10 | 50.0% | 40.2% | 46.2% | 43.3% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 41 | Water Tera Mage | 2 | 0.6% | 11 | 27.3% | 38.3% | 45.2% | 47.5% | 1272 | — |
| 42 | Chess | 4 | 1.2% | 28 | 41.1% | 53.6% | 45.1% | 48.7% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 43 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 0.3% | 10 | 40.0% | 26.1% | 45.1% | 39.7% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 44 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 0.3% | 10 | 30.0% | 42.7% | 44.9% | 47.3% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 45 | Water Neos | 3 | 0.9% | 13 | 30.8% | 43.1% | 44.5% | 46.5% | 1236 | ↓ low |
| 46 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 8 | 2.5% | 48 | 35.4% | 40.3% | 44.4% | 46.0% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 47 | Water Slimes | 1 | 0.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 35.4% | 44.3% | 44.0% | 1339 | — |
| 48 | Fire Slimes | 15 | 4.6% | 85 | 40.0% | 39.2% | 44.3% | 44.2% | 1263 | ↓ low |
| 49 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 0.6% | 13 | 38.5% | 45.2% | 44.1% | 44.8% | 1165 | ↓ low |
| 50 | Fire Aggro | 12 | 3.7% | 78 | 35.9% | 45.3% | 44.0% | 48.1% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 51 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 10 | 3.1% | 67 | 37.3% | 36.2% | 43.2% | 43.0% | 1294 | — |
| 52 | Water Chess | 1 | 0.3% | 10 | 45.0% | 59.8% | 42.9% | 48.1% | 1294 | — |
| 53 | Fire Arisanna | 1 | 0.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 41.8% | 40.0% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 54 | Norm Silvie | 1 | 0.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 42.6% | 40.5% | 45.9% | 1069 | ↓ low |
| 55 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 0.3% | 6 | 8.3% | 29.1% | 40.4% | 42.2% | 1110 | ↓ low |
| 56 | Wind Slimes | 2 | 0.6% | 7 | 7.1% | 21.7% | 40.2% | 39.8% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 57 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.2% | 40.0% | 40.7% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 58 | Fire Alice | 1 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.7% | 40.0% | 43.9% | 1057 | ↓ low |
| 59 | Wind Diana | 1 | 0.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.1% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 1159 | ↓ low |