← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Fire AggroTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 15 | 4-10-1 | 30.0% | 34.2% | 34.9% | -6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.9% | -2.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 26.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.2% | -2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.1% | -15.6 |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -16.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.3% | +7.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.1% | +9.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embersong | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Erupting Rhapsody | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |