← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
decks
8
(7.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
50
20-25-5
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1232
· median 1207
· range 1081–1548
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1197
Q3 1355
1582
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 54.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.5% | +2.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.9% | -14.8 |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.2% | -14.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
