← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional

decks
14 (12.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
59 27-26-6
overall winrate
50.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8% avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
51.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1320 · median 1300 · range 1083–1582 (14 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1197 Q3 1355 1582
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 17.3% 14 7-6-1 53.6% 52.8% 54.3% +1.8
Fire Erupting 10.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.6% +13.0
Fire Crux Mage 10.0% 8 3-5-0 37.5% 41.7% 44.4% -2.7
Fire Aggro 8.2% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 54.1% +2.4
Wind Allies 7.3% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 46.5% -2.0
Fire Crux Hybrid 4.5% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 56.4% +4.1
Rogue 4.5% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 38.4% -7.4
Fire Arcane 3.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% -0.0
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.7% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 43.2% -5.1
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.9% +14.3
Water Umbra Ranger 2.7% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.7% -14.7
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.7% 3 0-1-2 33.3% 42.9% 42.4% -5.7
Fire Neos 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.7
Wind Crux Mage 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.9% +17.4
Fire Astra Arisanna 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.3% -15.5
Fire Diana 0.9% 0
Fire Lorraine 0.9% 0
Fire Luxem Zander 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.7
Water Astra Cleric 0.9% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.9% 0
Water Crux Merlin 0.9% 0
Water Neos 0.9% 0
Water Tera Silvie 0.9% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 0.9% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.9% 0
Wind Triskit 0.9% 0
Wind Zander 0.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Regret +1.00 2 0 0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief +1.00 2 0 0
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 1 1
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.50 1 0 1
Excalibur, Cleansing Light -0.50 0 1 1
Serum of Wisdom -0.50 0 1 1
Meltdown -0.50 0 1 0
Orb of Choking Fumes +0.50 1 0 1
Fast Cure +0.50 1 0 1
Chalice of Blood -0.50 0 1 1
Quicksilver Grail -0.50 0 1 1
Juggle Knives -0.50 0 1 1
Uther, Illustrious King +0.50 1 0 0
Spirit of Serene Water -0.50 0 1 0
Spurn to Ash +0.50 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 1 0 0
Fracturize -0.50 0 1 0
Oasis Trading Post -0.50 0 1 0
Ignited Stab +0.50 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble +0.00 1 1 0
Focused Flames +0.00 1 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/952/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin