← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
decks
3
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
13-9-0
overall winrate
59.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1343
· median 1357
· range 1233–1439
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1197
Q3 1355
1582
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.4% | -3.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.8% | +5.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.4% | -13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.1% | +16.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.8% | +14.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
