← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
decks
11
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
63
37-23-3
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.7%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
55.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1329
· range 1106–1423
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1197
Q3 1355
1582
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
9% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +2.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 62.4% | +6.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.8% | +2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 39.9% | -4.6 |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.3% | +6.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.6% | +13.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.9% | +13.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Sudden Steel, Safeguard Amulet. Losers more often ran: Honorable Vanguard, Devastating Blow, Flame-Rune Swordsman.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Spark Alight
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Chilling Touch
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Honorable Vanguard
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Devastating Blow
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Exorcise Curses
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fracturize
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fracturize | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |