Fire EruptingTier 1

at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional

decks

12 (10.9% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

68 33-32-3

overall winrate

50.7%

ELO-adjusted winrate

50.8% avg ELO +0.3 per match

expected value

48.1% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

48.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1313 · median 1305 · range 1141–1552 (12 pilots with an ELO rating)

1000 Q1 1197 Q3 1355 1582

33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Water Allies	17.3%	11	6-4-1	59.1%	56.7%	56.2%	+2.7
Fire Luxem Assassin	12.7%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	36.4%	-13.0
Fire Crux Mage	10.0%	7	2-5-0	28.6%	36.4%	37.6%	-6.2
Fire Aggro	8.2%	7	6-1-0	85.7%	72.7%	73.3%	+11.7
Wind Allies	7.3%	13	6-6-1	50.0%	50.0%	49.6%	-0.2
Fire Crux Hybrid	4.5%	4	2-2-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.0%	-0.6
Rogue	4.5%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	41.8%	-6.2
Fire Arcane	3.6%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	35.3%	-14.1
Fire Crux Lorraine	2.7%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.2%	-0.7
Fire Umbra Ranger	2.7%	3	0-3-0	0.0%	28.6%	32.8%	-12.8
Water Umbra Ranger	2.7%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	49.8%	-0.2
Wind Crux Lorraine	2.7%	3	0-3-0	0.0%	28.6%	29.5%	-15.3
Fire Neos	1.8%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	63.7%	+13.2
Wind Crux Mage	1.8%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.4%	+15.0
Fire Astra Arisanna	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Diana	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Lorraine	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Luxem Zander	0.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	58.8%	+14.0
Water Astra Cleric	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Crux Mage	0.9%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	50.7%	+1.1
Water Crux Merlin	0.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.3%	+14.9
Water Neos	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Tera Silvie	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Astra Cleric	0.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.6%	+15.3
Wind Luxem Assassin	0.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	58.5%	+13.6
Wind Triskit	0.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	58.5%	+13.6
Wind Zander	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 12 from this event

The 12 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Cemetery Sentry, Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter, Sword of Adversity. Losers more often ran: Wind Resonance Bauble, The Elysian Astrolabe.

↑ Played more by winners