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Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +2.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 3 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 3 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dematerialize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |