← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional

Wind Crux LorraineTier 2

at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional

decks
3 (2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18 10-4-4
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.2% avg ELO +6.0 per match
expected value
57.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1415 · median 1513 · range 1214–1518 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1197 Q3 1355 1582
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 17.3% 3 1-0-2 66.7% 57.1% 57.1% +5.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 12.7% 3 1-0-2 66.7% 57.1% 57.6% +5.7
Fire Erupting 10.9% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 70.5% +15.3
Fire Crux Mage 10.0% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.5% +2.3
Fire Aggro 8.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.6
Wind Allies 7.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.9
Fire Crux Hybrid 4.5% 0
Rogue 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.9% -14.5
Fire Arcane 3.6% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.0% -12.7
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.4% +15.1
Water Umbra Ranger 2.7% 0
Fire Neos 1.8% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.8% 0
Fire Astra Arisanna 0.9% 0
Fire Diana 0.9% 0
Fire Lorraine 0.9% 0
Fire Luxem Zander 0.9% 0
Water Astra Cleric 0.9% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.9% 0
Water Crux Merlin 0.9% 0
Water Neos 0.9% 0
Water Tera Silvie 0.9% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 0.9% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.9% 0
Wind Triskit 0.9% 0
Wind Zander 0.9% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 3 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 3 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Rose, Eternal Paragon -1.00 0 1 0
Exorcise Curses +1.00 1 0 0
Dematerialize -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/952/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine