← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
decks
3
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
7-12-3
overall winrate
38.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1120
· median 1038
· range 1000–1321
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1197
Q3 1355
1582
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.1% | -13.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 35.7% | -7.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.7% | +18.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
