← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.3% | -8.1 |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arcane Disposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Limiter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer into Mana | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Voltaic Sphere | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |