← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Fire NeosTier 3
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
decks
2
(1.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
1-8-3
overall winrate
20.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.8%
avg ELO -8.2 per match
expected value
38.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1219
· median 1219
· range 1166–1272
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1197
Q3 1355
1582
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.9% | -9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.3% | -18.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
