← Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Houston Regional
decks
1
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1302
· range 1302–1302
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1197
Q3 1355
1582
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
