EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Christchurch.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slimes | 32 | 20.3% | 227 | 60.6% | 59.6% | 58.6% | 58.0% | 1356 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 5 | 3.2% | 53 | 62.3% | 58.3% | 56.6% | 55.1% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 4 | 2.5% | 35 | 54.3% | 57.8% | 51.3% | 53.3% | 1334 | — |
| 4 | Wind Razorgale | 11 | 7.0% | 90 | 52.2% | 46.2% | 51.3% | 47.7% | 1349 | — |
| 5 | Water Penguin Mill | 3 | 1.9% | 24 | 43.8% | 44.8% | 50.7% | 51.1% | 1302 | — |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 13 | 8.2% | 88 | 51.1% | 53.7% | 50.3% | 52.4% | 1306 | — |
| 7 | Water Arisanna | 1 | 0.6% | 12 | 62.5% | 74.1% | 50.0% | 56.5% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 9 | 5.7% | 74 | 54.1% | 52.2% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1375 | — |
| 9 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 61.4% | 49.3% | 54.3% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 62.5% | 67.0% | 49.1% | 54.1% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 0.6% | 7 | 35.7% | 47.0% | 48.4% | 53.8% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 0.6% | 7 | 57.1% | 40.2% | 48.1% | 42.1% | 1458 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Slimes | 5 | 3.2% | 42 | 50.0% | 53.2% | 48.0% | 49.9% | 1305 | — |
| 14 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 43.8% | 42.7% | 47.7% | 47.1% | 1285 | — |
| 15 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 7 | 4.4% | 51 | 48.0% | 48.6% | 47.3% | 47.8% | 1272 | — |
| 16 | Fire Aggro | 6 | 3.8% | 50 | 47.0% | 46.2% | 47.2% | 46.6% | 1318 | — |
| 17 | Wind Cats | 2 | 1.3% | 15 | 40.0% | 41.5% | 46.3% | 44.1% | 1281 | — |
| 18 | Wind Shadowstrike | 10 | 6.3% | 67 | 42.5% | 42.3% | 46.3% | 46.8% | 1375 | — |
| 19 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 0.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 41.8% | 46.1% | 47.5% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Crux Mage | 21 | 13.3% | 130 | 47.3% | 45.9% | 45.6% | 44.6% | 1318 | — |
| 21 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 1.3% | 16 | 40.6% | 32.5% | 45.6% | 43.6% | 1284 | — |
| 22 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 31.2% | 37.4% | 45.6% | 45.7% | 1298 | — |
| 23 | Water Diana | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 37.5% | 50.6% | 44.5% | 46.5% | 1022 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Wind Crux Mage | 2 | 1.3% | 15 | 30.0% | 45.6% | 43.6% | 47.5% | 1254 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 25.0% | 28.0% | 43.2% | 41.1% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 26 | Wind Neos | 1 | 0.6% | 6 | 16.7% | 33.5% | 42.7% | 45.8% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 37.5% | 38.3% | 42.7% | 42.2% | 1252 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Exia | 8 | 5.1% | 55 | 37.3% | 41.8% | 42.3% | 45.1% | 1203 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 1.3% | 10 | 50.0% | 60.8% | 41.7% | 48.0% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 25.0% | 33.7% | 41.3% | 43.0% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Water Silvie | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 37.5% | 42.8% | 41.0% | 40.4% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Wind Exia | 2 | 1.3% | 16 | 34.4% | 36.8% | 40.6% | 40.2% | 1187 | ↓ low |