Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
14
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
103
46-52-5
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1279
· median 1286
· range 1062–1541
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 18 | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 40.9% | 38.2% | -4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 14 | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 38.9% | 40.2% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 44.6% | -2.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 69.7% | +12.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 61.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 73.0% | +11.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.4% | -6.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.8% | +25.4 |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Liminal Guide, Creative Shock, Embercrypt Burn. Losers more often ran: Heated Vengeance, Intensified Pyre, Fire Resonance Bauble.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Creative Shock
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Embercrypt Burn
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Smoke Out
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Hone by Fire
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Demolition
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Heated Vengeance
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Intensified Pyre
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Arthur, Young Heir
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Clumsy Apprentice
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Impact Hammer
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 104 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 84 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heated Vengeance | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Blitz Mage | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebled Dagger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sunglory Sentinel | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blast Shield | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shield Fragmentation | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |