Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
13
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
107
53-40-14
overall winrate
56.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.1%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1348
· median 1343
· range 1081–1624
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
31% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
23% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 19 | 8-9-2 | 47.4% | 47.8% | 51.3% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 15 | 10-4-1 | 70.0% | 65.8% | 72.0% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -3.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +8.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 8 | 3-2-3 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 61.5% | +5.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 28.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 56.7% | +3.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +10.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +1.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.3% | +27.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.2% | -21.9 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
