Water GenbuTier 1
at Ascent Niagara Falls
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 35.9% | -5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 8 | 3-2-3 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 48.5% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 74.4% | +15.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 30.3% | -12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 8 | 2-3-3 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 38.5% | -5.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.7% | +6.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.7% | -9.2 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 25.9% | -13.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 22.2% | -26.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 53.5% | +2.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 8 | 1-4-3 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 32.8% | -8.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.9% | -4.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 30.7% | -30.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clockwork Musicbox | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lively Chorale | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fervent Beastmaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ocean's Blessing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |