← Ascent Niagara Falls

Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2

at Ascent Niagara Falls

decks
8 (3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
65 32-26-7
overall winrate
54.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.7% avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
50.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352 · median 1343 · range 1207–1576 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
937 Q1 1212 Q3 1415 1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 14.5% 18 7-10-1 41.7% 43.2% 50.6% +0.2
Wind Shadowstrike 8.4% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 51.1% +0.7
Fire Crux Lorraine 7.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.6% +23.3
Fire Aggro 6.5% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 57.6% +7.3
Wind Seiryuu 6.1% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 39.1% -10.4
Fire Suzaku 5.1% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 36.7% -8.5
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 73.2% +22.3
Water Genbu 4.7% 8 4-1-3 68.8% 62.5% 67.2% +8.2
Wind Razorgale 4.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.7% +2.6
Fire Suited 3.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.6% +21.8
Water Aetherwing 3.7% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 40.7% -6.0
Water Umbra Guardian 3.7% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.4% +3.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.5% +20.0
Water Tera Mage 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.1% +19.3
Wind Allies 1.9% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.9% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 56.5% +4.8
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.3% +19.7
Fire Slimes 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.2% +22.7
Water Fractal 1.4% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 1.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.7% +15.0
Slimes 0.9% 0
Water Allies 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.0% +20.8
Water Astra Ranger 0.9% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.4% +21.4
Wind Arcane 0.9% 0
Dawn of Ashes 0.5% 0
Fire Arisanna 0.5% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.4% -10.5
Fire Exia 0.5% 0
Fire Seiryuu 0.5% 0
Fire Tera Cleric 0.5% 0
Fire Umbra Diana 0.5% 0
Water Neos 0.5% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.6% -19.8
Wind Astra Diana 0.5% 0
Wind Slimes 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 68.2% +29.1
Wind Vanitas 0.5% 0
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reconnaissance Scout +1.00 1 0 0
Aesan Protector +1.00 1 0 0
Concealed Marksman -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Scout the Land +1.00 1 0 0
Draught of Stamina -1.00 0 1 0
Coronation Ceremony +1.00 1 0 0
Tempest Downfall -1.00 0 1 0
Tristan, Underhanded -1.00 0 1 0
Beseech the Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Inert Sword -1.00 0 1 0
Steady Sharpshooter -1.00 0 1 0
Eternal Magistrate -1.00 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Portentous Tanggu -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/36225/archetypes/Wind Wakeup Combo