Wind Wakeup ComboTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 18 | 7-10-1 | 41.7% | 43.2% | 50.6% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.2% | +22.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 8 | 4-1-3 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 67.2% | +8.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.7% | -6.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +4.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.0 |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 68.2% | +29.1 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Wind Wakeup Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reconnaissance Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Concealed Marksman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Draught of Stamina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Steady Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |