Wind ArcaneTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
2
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
10-5-5
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.9%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
55.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1397
· median 1397
· range 1187–1607
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 68.3% | +10.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.3% | +6.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.8% | +21.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
