← Ascent Niagara Falls

Wind RazorgaleTier 1

at Ascent Niagara Falls

decks
10 (4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
80 40-30-10
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4% avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
52.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1359 · median 1335 · range 1162–1549 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
937 Q1 1212 Q3 1415 1750
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 14.5% 15 6-8-1 43.3% 44.7% 28.9% -8.6
Wind Shadowstrike 8.4% 12 7-5-0 58.3% 56.2% 53.8% +1.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 7.0% 8 1-4-3 31.2% 37.5% 29.0% -10.1
Fire Aggro 6.5% 7 4-3-0 57.1% 54.5% 38.4% -5.8
Wind Seiryuu 6.1% 4 3-0-1 87.5% 68.8% 71.6% +13.8
Fire Suzaku 5.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.6% +23.4
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.7% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 39.6% -6.0
Water Genbu 4.7% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 62.3% +9.2
Fire Suited 3.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.3% -0.7
Water Aetherwing 3.7% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 47.3% -2.0
Water Umbra Guardian 3.7% 4 2-0-2 75.0% 62.5% 49.0% -0.6
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.3% -2.6
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.3% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.4% +0.4
Wind Allies 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.5% -23.3
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.4% -4.4
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.2% +13.1
Fire Slimes 1.4% 0
Water Fractal 1.4% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 1.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.6% -1.4
Slimes 0.9% 0
Water Allies 0.9% 0
Water Astra Ranger 0.9% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.3% -10.8
Wind Arcane 0.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.7% +18.6
Dawn of Ashes 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.3% +5.3
Fire Arisanna 0.5% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 0.5% 0
Fire Exia 0.5% 0
Fire Seiryuu 0.5% 0
Fire Tera Cleric 0.5% 0
Fire Umbra Diana 0.5% 0
Water Neos 0.5% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.5% 0
Wind Astra Diana 0.5% 0
Wind Slimes 0.5% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 59.9% +9.5
Wind Vanitas 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.5% +8.7
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Losers more often ran: Rictus Tiding, Arrow Trap.

Played more by winners

No cards correlated with winning.

Played more by losers
Rictus Tiding
Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Arrow Trap
Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Spellshield: Wind -0.67 0 2 1
Three Visits -0.67 0 2 1
Reclaim -0.33 0 1 2
Aesan Protector -0.33 0 1 2
Unbroken Mustang -0.33 0 1 2
Rictus Tiding -0.33 1 2 0
Ensnaring Fumes +0.33 1 0 2
Four of Spades -0.33 0 1 2
Arrow Trap -0.33 1 2 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.33 0 1 2
Zephyr +0.33 1 0 2
Scatter Essence -0.33 0 1 2
Smoke Bombs +0.33 1 0 0
Usurp the Winds +0.33 1 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +0.33 1 0 0
Favorable Winds +0.33 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree +0.33 1 0 0
Ardent Cloudstriker +0.33 1 0 0
Innervate Agility +0.33 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 0
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace +0.00 1 1 0
Stifling Trap +0.00 1 1 1
Turbo Charge +0.00 1 1 1
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 1
Portentous Tanggu +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/36225/archetypes/Wind Razorgale