Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
31
(14.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
247
124-94-29
overall winrate
56.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.0%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
54.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1327
· range 1105–1652
(31 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
23% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 25 | 11-13-1 | 46.0% | 46.6% | 51.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 18 | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 36.4% | 46.3% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 18 | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 59.1% | 61.8% | +4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 19 | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 52.2% | 48.7% | -0.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 12 | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 66.1% | +6.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 14 | 6-4-4 | 57.1% | 55.6% | 55.3% | +2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 64.1% | +5.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 15 | 8-6-1 | 56.7% | 55.3% | 71.1% | +8.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 63.0% | +7.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 60.0% | +4.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 8 | 6-1-1 | 81.2% | 70.8% | 68.3% | +8.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 18 | 10-7-1 | 58.3% | 56.8% | 49.4% | -0.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +3.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 69.2% | +12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 66.8% | +7.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 6 | 2-1-3 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 46.0% | -2.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +9.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 8 | 1-5-2 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 29.9% | -9.6 |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.6% | +2.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 31.7% | -10.5 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.8 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 31 from this event
The 31 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 14 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Hasty Messenger, Flame-Rune Swordsman. Losers more often ran: Crux Sight, Library Witch, Varuckan Acolyte.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 4.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Three of Hearts
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.9.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Library Witch
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 11.
Varuckan Acolyte
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Sword of Shadows
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 7.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.21 | 4 | 1 | 9 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.21 | 2 | 5 | 4 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.21 | 6 | 3 | 5 | |
| Library Witch | -0.21 | 0 | 3 | 6 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.14 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 13 | |
| Floating Peace | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |