Water FractalTier 3
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
3
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
8-12-2
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.2%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1270
· median 1364
· range 1056–1390
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -9.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.2% | -9.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +10.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.1% | -28.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.5 |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
