Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 14 | 4-6-4 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 44.7% | -2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 28.8% | -10.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -8.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +6.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.3% | -6.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.3% | +19.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.0% | -12.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.8% | -22.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablier Guard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mary Ann, Maladroit Maid | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overwhelming Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suspicious Concoction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kraal, Stonescale Tyrant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |