Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Ascent Niagara Falls
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 33.9% | -6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 59.0% | +4.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -6.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.4 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 76.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +4.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.3% | +2.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +3.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Intensified Pyre, Demolition, Crystallized Destiny. Losers more often ran: Embercrypt Burn, Spark Alight, Shatter the Brittle.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |