Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
18
(8.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
138
66-61-11
overall winrate
51.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1315
· median 1320
· range 937–1543
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
28% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 25 | 13-11-1 | 54.0% | 53.4% | 48.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 60.7% | +4.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 14 | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 61.1% | 59.8% | +4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 71.2% | +10.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 8 | 2-3-3 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 51.5% | +0.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 46.2% | -1.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 35.0% | -8.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.5% | -19.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 27.8% | -11.8 |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.2 |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 18 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Cleansing Reunion, Devouring Malice. Losers more often ran: Ensnaring Fumes, Aesan Protector, Nullifying Lantern.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Cleansing Reunion
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Devouring Malice
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Tempest Downfall
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Ensnaring Fumes
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Aesan Protector
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Nocturne's Oblivion
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Zephyr | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |