Water Tera MageTier 3
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
4
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
8-15-5
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.5%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
42.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1312
· range 1115–1502
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 30.8% | -12.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.0% | -27.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -5.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.6% | +10.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.0% | +20.1 |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Tera Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
