Fire Crux LorraineTier 1

at Ascent Niagara Falls

decks

15 (7.0% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

113 53-46-14

overall winrate

53.1%

ELO-adjusted winrate

43.6% avg ELO -2.1 per match

expected value

51.8% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

45.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↑ top

mean ELO 1407 · median 1420 · range 1131–1679 (15 pilots with an ELO rating)

937 Q1 1212 Q3 1415 1750

53% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage	14.5%	18	10-4-4	66.7%	63.6%	53.7%	+1.4
Wind Shadowstrike	8.4%	11	6-5-0	54.5%	53.3%	39.3%	-4.7
Fire Aggro	6.5%	9	6-2-1	72.2%	65.4%	55.4%	+2.5
Wind Seiryuu	6.1%	15	4-10-1	30.0%	34.2%	28.0%	-8.9
Fire Suzaku	5.1%	8	4-3-1	56.2%	54.2%	41.0%	-4.3
Fire Umbra Guardian	4.7%	3	1-2-0	33.3%	42.9%	49.3%	-0.5
Water Genbu	4.7%	4	0-4-0	0.0%	25.0%	25.6%	-15.6
Wind Razorgale	4.7%	8	4-1-3	68.8%	62.5%	71.0%	+10.1
Fire Suited	3.7%	4	4-0-0	100.0%	75.0%	73.6%	+15.1
Water Aetherwing	3.7%	5	1-4-0	20.0%	33.3%	18.7%	-18.0
Water Umbra Guardian	3.7%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	40.7%	-9.0
Wind Wakeup Combo	3.7%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	35.4%	-23.3
Fire Firebloom Burn	2.3%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Tera Mage	1.9%	3	1-1-1	50.0%	50.0%	48.7%	-1.0
Wind Allies	1.9%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	59.3%	+9.0
Wind Crux Lorraine	1.9%	2	0-2-0	0.0%	33.3%	30.9%	-18.4
Fire Luxem Assassin	1.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	43.3%	-10.7
Fire Slimes	1.4%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	41.3%	-14.0
Water Fractal	1.4%	2	1-0-1	75.0%	58.3%	54.8%	+4.6
Wind Astra Cleric	1.4%	4	2-2-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.6%	-2.2
Slimes	0.9%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	54.6%	+7.4
Water Allies	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Astra Ranger	0.9%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Crux Mage	0.9%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	46.8%	-3.1
Wind Arcane	0.9%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	57.1%	+11.3
Dawn of Ashes	0.5%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	52.5%	+4.0
Fire Arisanna	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Crux Merlin	0.5%	3	2-0-1	83.3%	64.3%	59.9%	+7.4
Fire Exia	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Seiryuu	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Tera Cleric	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Umbra Diana	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Neos	0.5%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	56.6%	+10.6
Water Tera Cleric	0.5%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	40.3%	-15.5
Wind Astra Diana	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Slimes	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Vanitas	0.5%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 15 from this event

The 15 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Undying Dreams, Reduce to Ash, Sword of Seeking. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Intensified Pyre.

↑ Played more by winners

Undying Dreams

Winning decks ran 2.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.4.

Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.