Water AetherwingTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
8
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
61
27-29-5
overall winrate
48.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1363
· median 1345
· range 1191–1548
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 10 | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 40.0% | -4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 81.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.6% | +6.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 77.8% | +26.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 24.0% | -19.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.3% | +6.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.7% | -9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
