← Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Auckland Path of Steel 2025.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 11 | 8.7% | 96 | 65.1% | 55.3% | 56.6% | 51.2% | 1548 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 0.8% | 13 | 69.2% | 71.9% | 55.2% | 57.9% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 9 | 7.1% | 80 | 58.8% | 50.9% | 54.8% | 50.7% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Razorgale | 12 | 9.5% | 102 | 59.3% | 55.5% | 54.5% | 53.1% | 1485 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 0.8% | 8 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 53.9% | 55.2% | 1427 | — |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 0.8% | 12 | 66.7% | 54.5% | 52.1% | 50.7% | 1423 | — |
| 7 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 8 | 6.3% | 70 | 53.6% | 49.9% | 51.7% | 50.4% | 1391 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Merlin | 5 | 4.0% | 52 | 52.9% | 51.7% | 50.3% | 50.5% | 1404 | — |
| 9 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 0.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 56.7% | 50.0% | 53.6% | 1043 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 1.6% | 14 | 42.9% | 47.6% | 49.9% | 51.7% | 1373 | — |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 11 | 8.7% | 99 | 52.0% | 52.8% | 49.3% | 49.8% | 1350 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 7 | 5.6% | 59 | 47.5% | 50.7% | 49.0% | 50.2% | 1326 | — |
| 13 | Slimes | 1 | 0.8% | 8 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 48.9% | 49.7% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 5 | 4.0% | 45 | 48.9% | 56.5% | 48.8% | 53.5% | 1328 | — |
| 15 | Water Umbra Guardian | 2 | 1.6% | 15 | 30.0% | 30.8% | 48.1% | 47.1% | 1311 | — |
| 16 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 0.8% | 12 | 54.2% | 48.1% | 48.0% | 46.8% | 1552 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Crux Mage | 10 | 7.9% | 84 | 48.2% | 56.3% | 47.9% | 53.2% | 1295 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Genbu | 2 | 1.6% | 16 | 50.0% | 41.3% | 46.9% | 43.9% | 1370 | — |
| 19 | Fire Suzaku | 7 | 5.6% | 51 | 46.1% | 46.6% | 46.6% | 47.2% | 1337 | — |
| 20 | Wind Umbra Guardian | 1 | 0.8% | 8 | 50.0% | 60.0% | 45.7% | 49.9% | 1330 | — |
| 21 | Wind Allies | 2 | 1.6% | 17 | 41.2% | 38.6% | 45.6% | 44.1% | 1332 | — |
| 22 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 1.6% | 20 | 52.5% | 40.8% | 45.4% | 42.0% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 23 | Water Allies | 5 | 4.0% | 39 | 33.3% | 33.4% | 44.8% | 44.6% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 2.4% | 24 | 39.6% | 46.8% | 44.7% | 46.8% | 1360 | — |
| 25 | Fire Suited | 3 | 2.4% | 20 | 35.0% | 44.9% | 44.3% | 47.9% | 1165 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.8% | 9 | 33.3% | 40.6% | 44.3% | 46.7% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.8% | 44.1% | 46.6% | 1282 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 3.2% | 32 | 39.1% | 49.6% | 43.9% | 47.7% | 1332 | — |
| 29 | Fire Exia | 1 | 0.8% | 6 | 25.0% | 35.4% | 43.6% | 44.8% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 0.8% | 8 | 37.5% | 49.3% | 43.2% | 46.0% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 0.8% | 8 | 25.0% | 45.2% | 42.1% | 45.8% | 1074 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Water Fractal | 3 | 2.4% | 20 | 30.0% | 42.5% | 41.7% | 44.6% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Wind Exia | 1 | 0.8% | 9 | 22.2% | 45.1% | 41.3% | 47.0% | 978 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 0.8% | 8 | 18.8% | 21.7% | 39.8% | 36.8% | 1229 | ↓ low |