EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at New Taipei Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 14 | 5.2% | 99 | 62.6% | 55.4% | 56.9% | 52.9% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Arcane | 5 | 1.9% | 42 | 64.3% | 65.3% | 55.3% | 57.0% | 1288 | — |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 61.1% | 57.0% | 53.8% | 53.2% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 0.7% | 18 | 61.1% | 53.9% | 53.6% | 51.5% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 10 | 3.7% | 76 | 59.9% | 52.5% | 52.8% | 49.7% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 4 | 1.5% | 28 | 55.4% | 51.6% | 52.7% | 50.8% | 1358 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 14 | 5.2% | 105 | 55.7% | 52.2% | 52.4% | 50.0% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Allies | 4 | 1.5% | 31 | 56.5% | 56.6% | 52.2% | 52.3% | 1305 | — |
| 9 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 7 | 2.6% | 54 | 57.4% | 52.6% | 52.1% | 51.2% | 1318 | — |
| 10 | Arcane | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 72.2% | 64.1% | 51.8% | 51.4% | 1276 | — |
| 11 | Wind Byakko | 2 | 0.7% | 18 | 55.6% | 57.0% | 51.8% | 53.4% | 1238 | — |
| 12 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 12 | 4.5% | 84 | 52.4% | 47.5% | 51.5% | 49.1% | 1324 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Water Aetherwing | 20 | 7.5% | 141 | 51.4% | 54.8% | 51.4% | 53.4% | 1265 | — |
| 14 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 10 | 3.7% | 73 | 54.1% | 48.2% | 51.4% | 49.2% | 1353 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 27 | 10.1% | 187 | 52.4% | 51.0% | 51.2% | 50.3% | 1265 | — |
| 16 | Water Fractal | 8 | 3.0% | 55 | 54.5% | 49.1% | 51.1% | 49.1% | 1295 | — |
| 17 | Horse and Taxes | 4 | 1.5% | 33 | 51.5% | 46.1% | 50.6% | 48.7% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Astra Cleric | 14 | 5.2% | 103 | 49.5% | 53.1% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 1225 | — |
| 19 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 0.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 50.6% | 49.8% | 55.1% | 1025 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 3 | 1.1% | 23 | 45.7% | 44.6% | 49.5% | 48.5% | 1261 | — |
| 21 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 0.4% | 9 | 44.4% | 51.0% | 49.5% | 50.6% | 1243 | — |
| 22 | Fire Astra Ranger | 1 | 0.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.8% | 49.3% | 49.2% | 1222 | — |
| 23 | Fire Suzaku | 11 | 4.1% | 78 | 46.8% | 49.0% | 49.3% | 49.4% | 1230 | — |
| 24 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 5 | 1.9% | 28 | 42.9% | 48.0% | 49.2% | 51.4% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 0.7% | 16 | 43.8% | 47.9% | 48.4% | 49.9% | 1236 | — |
| 26 | Fire Crux Mage | 12 | 4.5% | 89 | 49.4% | 52.0% | 48.1% | 50.6% | 1231 | — |
| 27 | Fire Oblation | 18 | 6.7% | 120 | 47.1% | 48.1% | 47.7% | 48.8% | 1253 | — |
| 28 | Slimes | 3 | 1.1% | 25 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 47.3% | 49.1% | 1259 | — |
| 29 | Water Chess | 3 | 1.1% | 13 | 34.6% | 51.6% | 46.9% | 50.4% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Exia | 6 | 2.2% | 46 | 50.0% | 43.9% | 46.9% | 45.5% | 1281 | — |
| 31 | Wind Seiryuu | 23 | 8.6% | 164 | 44.5% | 47.0% | 45.7% | 47.4% | 1243 | — |
| 32 | Fire Umbra Alice | 4 | 1.5% | 21 | 26.2% | 26.5% | 44.7% | 43.4% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Wind Allies | 4 | 1.5% | 30 | 33.3% | 44.6% | 44.4% | 46.7% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 0.4% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.2% | 43.6% | 43.9% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Water Crux Assassin | 2 | 0.7% | 14 | 21.4% | 32.0% | 43.1% | 45.1% | 1297 | — |
| 36 | Wind Nico | 1 | 0.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 36.2% | 43.0% | 39.7% | 1366 | ↑ top |
| 37 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 0.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 34.5% | 41.7% | 43.3% | 1136 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Fire Aetherwing | 8 | 3.0% | 50 | 32.0% | 44.4% | 41.7% | 46.8% | 1139 | ↓ low |
| 39 | Wind Neos | 1 | 0.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 45.1% | 41.6% | 47.2% | 988 | ↓ low |
| 40 | Wind Merlin | 1 | 0.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.5% | 40.4% | 41.7% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 41 | Wind Chess | 1 | 0.4% | 8 | 6.2% | 43.2% | 39.1% | 46.5% | 945 | ↓ low |