← Ascent Manila 2026

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Manila 2026. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Wind Shadowstrike
55.4%
4.7% share · 139 matches
1st
Wind Seiryuu
58.6%
10.5% share · 253 matches
↑ top
3rd
Wind Wakeup Combo
55.2%
1.4% share · 44 matches
↑ top
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 29 10.5% 253 61.5% 58.9% 58.6% 56.4% 1431 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 13 4.7% 139 61.5% 58.4% 55.4% 53.3% 1363 —
3 Wind Wakeup Combo 4 1.4% 44 61.4% 55.2% 55.2% 53.3% 1396 ↑ top
4 Fire Luxem Assassin 19 6.9% 180 57.5% 52.7% 55.0% 52.1% 1442 ↑ top
5 Wind Umbra Guardian 1 0.4% 9 55.6% 44.4% 53.8% 48.6% 1387 ↑ top
6 Fire Suzaku 5 1.8% 56 58.0% 52.2% 52.8% 50.1% 1418 ↑ top
7 Fire Suited 2 0.7% 12 50.0% 50.0% 52.8% 52.5% 1212 ↓ low
8 Arcane 2 0.7% 20 55.0% 48.0% 51.8% 50.2% 1439 ↑ top
9 Wind Lorraine 2 0.7% 18 52.8% 62.1% 51.8% 55.4% 1258 ↓ low
10 Fire Exia 1 0.4% 9 61.1% 67.5% 51.6% 56.0% 1157 ↓ low
11 Fire Umbra Guardian 11 4.0% 108 52.3% 51.5% 51.2% 50.0% 1357 —
12 Fire Tera Silvie 1 0.4% 9 44.4% 56.1% 51.0% 55.1% 1227 ↓ low
13 Horse and Taxes 5 1.8% 42 56.0% 59.9% 50.5% 51.8% 1295 —
14 Fire Crux Mage 14 5.1% 129 53.1% 54.3% 50.3% 51.4% 1334 —
15 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 0.4% 9 55.6% 58.7% 49.4% 52.8% 1212 ↓ low
16 Fire Oblation 26 9.4% 229 47.8% 50.9% 48.8% 51.3% 1319 —
17 Water Genbu 5 1.8% 43 48.8% 49.0% 48.8% 48.2% 1371 —
18 Water Slice & Dice 1 0.4% 9 44.4% 45.7% 48.8% 47.7% 1243 ↓ low
19 Fire Aggro 16 5.8% 141 48.9% 50.3% 48.8% 50.5% 1317 —
20 Fire Crux Lorraine 13 4.7% 113 54.4% 46.3% 48.7% 43.8% 1371 —
21 Water Allies 4 1.4% 35 47.1% 52.9% 48.5% 51.6% 1304 —
22 Water Crux Assassin 3 1.1% 19 28.9% 30.0% 48.5% 46.5% 1254 ↓ low
23 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 0.4% 9 44.4% 49.6% 48.1% 49.7% 1303 —
24 Fire Crux Merlin 3 1.1% 35 54.3% 46.3% 48.1% 45.9% 1408 ↑ top
25 Water Fractal 8 2.9% 62 46.8% 42.9% 47.4% 45.5% 1271 —
26 Wind Umbra Ranger 3 1.1% 26 51.9% 49.6% 47.2% 47.9% 1327 —
27 Water Aetherwing 22 8.0% 183 48.1% 49.3% 47.2% 48.4% 1359 —
28 Wind Allies 3 1.1% 22 45.5% 40.7% 47.2% 44.3% 1323 —
29 Water Umbra Guardian 1 0.4% 9 55.6% 45.9% 47.1% 44.5% 1467 ↑ top
30 Fire Polkhawk 1 0.4% 10 50.0% 53.9% 46.9% 48.4% 1125 ↓ low
31 Water Tera Mage 1 0.4% 9 38.9% 46.1% 46.7% 47.2% 1115 ↓ low
32 Wind Crux Mage 1 0.4% 9 38.9% 45.5% 46.6% 49.1% 1103 ↓ low
33 Water Luxem Assassin 2 0.7% 19 44.7% 35.9% 46.0% 43.6% 1364 —
34 Wind Razorgale 3 1.1% 23 37.0% 47.8% 45.7% 49.8% 1253 ↓ low
35 Fire Firebloom Burn 10 3.6% 81 43.8% 56.7% 45.7% 51.9% 1207 ↓ low
36 Fire Aetherwing 6 2.2% 48 44.8% 58.0% 45.5% 50.9% 1211 ↓ low
37 Fire Umbra Alice 2 0.7% 17 38.2% 31.7% 45.2% 41.9% 1273 —
38 Water Umbra Alice 1 0.4% 10 45.0% 37.3% 45.1% 40.8% 1354 —
39 Wind Arcane 1 0.4% 9 38.9% 45.7% 44.4% 45.8% 1234 ↓ low
40 Wind Diana 1 0.4% 7 28.6% 45.9% 43.9% 48.5% 1114 ↓ low
41 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 0.4% 9 38.9% 56.7% 43.5% 47.9% 1182 ↓ low
42 Fire Umbra Diana 1 0.4% 9 44.4% 51.7% 43.4% 47.3% 1425 ↑ top
43 Water Astra Ranger 1 0.4% 9 33.3% 48.0% 43.2% 48.3% 1085 ↓ low
44 Wind Astra Cleric 8 2.9% 59 37.3% 37.5% 42.7% 43.3% 1314 —
45 Water Ravishing Mill 1 0.4% 9 27.8% 32.9% 42.2% 41.5% 1168 ↓ low
46 Fire Slimes 1 0.4% 10 25.0% 36.1% 42.0% 43.0% 1099 ↓ low
47 Fire Rai 1 0.4% 9 33.3% 29.8% 41.1% 38.7% 1352 —
48 Wind Byakko 1 0.4% 5 10.0% 29.1% 41.0% 42.7% 1079 ↓ low
49 Fire Umbra Ciel 2 0.7% 6 0.0% 19.6% 40.0% 42.2% 1151 ↓ low
50 Water Neos 1 0.4% 5 0.0% 28.5% 40.0% 43.1% 1062 ↓ low
51 Fire Arcane 1 0.4% 8 25.0% 29.7% 39.8% 37.7% 1233 ↓ low
52 Slimes 4 1.4% 23 21.7% 33.6% 39.3% 41.7% 1118 ↓ low
53 Wind Chess 7 2.5% 39 6.4% 11.5% 34.8% 36.0% 1101 ↓ low