EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Taipei.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.4% | 13 | 73.1% | 74.4% | 56.0% | 58.3% | 1366 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 27 | 11.3% | 202 | 56.7% | 56.0% | 54.8% | 54.6% | 1314 | — |
| 3 | Water Allies | 10 | 4.2% | 84 | 54.2% | 50.7% | 54.2% | 52.8% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 8 | 3.4% | 72 | 59.0% | 60.1% | 53.3% | 54.2% | 1327 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 9 | 3.8% | 69 | 55.1% | 52.4% | 52.8% | 51.9% | 1277 | — |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 4 | 1.7% | 33 | 54.5% | 52.9% | 52.6% | 53.2% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 26 | 10.9% | 174 | 54.9% | 56.6% | 52.5% | 53.9% | 1306 | — |
| 8 | Water Neos | 3 | 1.3% | 25 | 50.0% | 47.8% | 52.0% | 51.2% | 1288 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 17 | 7.1% | 134 | 50.4% | 45.5% | 51.8% | 48.6% | 1301 | — |
| 10 | Wind Crux Mage | 9 | 3.8% | 72 | 52.1% | 45.9% | 51.7% | 48.6% | 1373 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Zander | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 42.9% | 55.3% | 51.1% | 54.9% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Slimes | 3 | 1.3% | 21 | 50.0% | 55.8% | 50.8% | 53.0% | 1315 | — |
| 13 | Wind Overlord | 2 | 0.8% | 17 | 52.9% | 50.6% | 50.4% | 50.0% | 1462 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Umbra Tristan | 2 | 0.8% | 16 | 62.5% | 64.4% | 50.1% | 50.5% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Tonoris | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 35.7% | 38.8% | 49.6% | 49.1% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Arcane | 14 | 5.9% | 104 | 49.0% | 50.7% | 49.5% | 50.4% | 1287 | — |
| 17 | Water Ravishing Mill | 5 | 2.1% | 40 | 55.0% | 48.5% | 49.4% | 45.2% | 1304 | — |
| 18 | Fire Slimes | 14 | 5.9% | 92 | 47.8% | 50.4% | 48.0% | 49.7% | 1272 | — |
| 19 | Wind Tristan | 1 | 0.4% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.5% | 47.8% | 49.2% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Slimes | 32 | 13.4% | 200 | 48.0% | 48.4% | 47.6% | 48.2% | 1263 | — |
| 21 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.3% | 47.6% | 47.7% | 1348 | — |
| 22 | Arcane | 1 | 0.4% | 8 | 37.5% | 55.8% | 47.0% | 52.1% | 1064 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Slice & Dice | 2 | 0.8% | 13 | 38.5% | 52.0% | 46.8% | 51.0% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Erupting | 5 | 2.1% | 34 | 41.2% | 44.7% | 45.3% | 46.4% | 1307 | — |
| 25 | Wind Shadowstrike | 26 | 10.9% | 174 | 45.7% | 45.0% | 44.9% | 44.3% | 1309 | — |
| 26 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 0.8% | 16 | 40.6% | 44.4% | 44.6% | 43.9% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 27 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 31.8% | 44.5% | 45.5% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Neos | 2 | 0.8% | 9 | 22.2% | 26.7% | 44.1% | 41.3% | 1280 | — |
| 29 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.4% | 8 | 43.8% | 54.5% | 43.7% | 47.4% | 1068 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Arisanna | 1 | 0.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 37.6% | 42.9% | 45.9% | 959 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Water Astra Cleric | 2 | 0.8% | 9 | 27.8% | 38.5% | 42.4% | 42.8% | 1108 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.4% | 7 | 14.3% | 22.3% | 42.0% | 40.5% | 1043 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Fire Shadowstrike | 1 | 0.4% | 4 | 12.5% | 28.1% | 40.3% | 39.4% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 0.4% | 5 | 0.0% | 19.4% | 40.0% | 39.2% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 4 | 1.7% | 32 | 34.4% | 37.2% | 39.9% | 40.5% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 0.4% | 4 | 0.0% | 24.1% | 37.9% | 37.5% | 1173 | ↓ low |