EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent Niagara Falls.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Exia | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.6% | 55.6% | 56.6% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 1.4% | 31 | 59.7% | 61.8% | 55.4% | 57.3% | 1376 | — |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 0.9% | 20 | 62.5% | 63.9% | 55.4% | 56.1% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 31 | 14.5% | 247 | 56.1% | 58.0% | 54.1% | 56.6% | 1319 | — |
| 5 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 46.7% | 53.5% | 51.2% | 1340 | — |
| 6 | Wind Razorgale | 10 | 4.7% | 80 | 56.2% | 44.4% | 52.8% | 46.2% | 1359 | — |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 4 | 1.9% | 32 | 56.2% | 53.5% | 52.7% | 52.3% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 13 | 6.1% | 107 | 56.1% | 58.1% | 52.1% | 53.8% | 1348 | — |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 18 | 8.4% | 138 | 51.8% | 50.6% | 51.9% | 51.2% | 1315 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 15 | 7.0% | 113 | 53.1% | 43.6% | 51.8% | 45.9% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 0.9% | 20 | 52.5% | 52.0% | 51.1% | 51.1% | 1387 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 8 | 3.7% | 65 | 54.6% | 62.7% | 50.8% | 54.8% | 1352 | — |
| 13 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 1.4% | 21 | 47.6% | 42.5% | 50.6% | 49.6% | 1311 | — |
| 14 | Water Aetherwing | 8 | 3.7% | 61 | 48.4% | 52.7% | 50.5% | 52.8% | 1363 | — |
| 15 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 0.5% | 11 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 49.8% | 51.6% | 1326 | — |
| 16 | Water Genbu | 10 | 4.7% | 82 | 51.2% | 40.9% | 49.7% | 43.9% | 1390 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Wind Allies | 4 | 1.9% | 38 | 51.3% | 48.5% | 49.2% | 47.9% | 1326 | — |
| 18 | Fire Suzaku | 11 | 5.1% | 74 | 50.7% | 53.5% | 48.4% | 49.6% | 1288 | — |
| 19 | Wind Astra Diana | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 50.0% | 47.9% | 51.3% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 1.4% | 28 | 50.0% | 55.0% | 47.8% | 50.5% | 1303 | — |
| 21 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 10 | 4.7% | 77 | 46.1% | 43.4% | 47.5% | 45.6% | 1365 | — |
| 22 | Water Allies | 2 | 0.9% | 17 | 44.1% | 39.6% | 47.3% | 45.7% | 1312 | — |
| 23 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 0.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.4% | 46.9% | 48.0% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Aggro | 14 | 6.5% | 103 | 47.1% | 50.5% | 46.8% | 48.5% | 1279 | — |
| 25 | Water Umbra Guardian | 8 | 3.7% | 61 | 46.7% | 56.3% | 46.7% | 51.6% | 1269 | — |
| 26 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 42.7% | 46.6% | 46.3% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Water Astra Ranger | 2 | 0.9% | 13 | 42.3% | 37.0% | 45.5% | 44.0% | 1360 | — |
| 28 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 5 | 2.3% | 32 | 40.6% | 53.3% | 44.5% | 48.6% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Water Fractal | 3 | 1.4% | 22 | 40.9% | 40.2% | 44.0% | 43.8% | 1270 | — |
| 30 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 18.8% | 22.4% | 43.0% | 41.3% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Water Tera Mage | 4 | 1.9% | 28 | 37.5% | 41.5% | 42.6% | 43.2% | 1310 | — |
| 32 | Slimes | 2 | 0.9% | 13 | 30.8% | 37.4% | 42.2% | 43.3% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Fire Suited | 8 | 3.7% | 50 | 32.0% | 35.4% | 41.3% | 40.6% | 1258 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 0.5% | 4 | 12.5% | 42.6% | 40.3% | 45.9% | 1058 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Wind Vanitas | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 10.0% | 38.1% | 40.2% | 44.2% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.5% | 5 | 10.0% | 34.2% | 40.2% | 42.1% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Fire Arisanna | 1 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.6% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 0.5% | 6 | 25.0% | 31.6% | 35.5% | 35.4% | 1275 | — |