← AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 17 | 11-6-0 | 64.7% | 61.9% | 64.8% | +5.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 15 | 6-8-1 | 43.3% | 44.7% | 43.0% | -2.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.2% | 17 | 3-9-5 | 32.4% | 35.7% | 37.4% | -5.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.4% | 10 | 7-1-2 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 66.3% | +7.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.8% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.9% | -9.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 67.3% | +8.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 40.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.4% | +11.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +6.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.7% | -3.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 44.0% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.3% | +4.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% | -16.0 |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.5 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.7% | -7.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Flame Sweep. Losers more often ran: Devastating Blow, Rending Flames, Topsy Decree.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regal Inquisition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |