← AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
decks
18
(6.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
147
60-79-8
overall winrate
43.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1221
· median 1198
· range 1070–1474
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1194
Q3 1398
1685
11% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 20 | 10-9-1 | 52.5% | 52.1% | 55.5% | +2.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 15 | 6-8-1 | 43.3% | 44.7% | 49.7% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.2% | 17 | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 40.5% | 45.9% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.7% | 10 | 1-7-2 | 20.0% | 28.6% | 33.7% | -7.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.7% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.2% | -4.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 65.2% | +7.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 36.8% | -7.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 32.4% | -8.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 45.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.0% | -7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +17.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +20.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Chess | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 18 from this event
The 18 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Enfeebling Orb, Fractal of Insight, Embercrypt Burn. Losers more often ran: Ignis Deus, Nullifying Mirror, Reduce to Ash.
Enfeebling Orb
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Fractal of Insight
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Embercrypt Burn
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Stolen Chance
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Ignis Deus
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Fanatical Devotee
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Censer of Restful Peace
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.38 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Scathing Seminary | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Scepter | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashwick Cremator | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 |