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Water FractalTier 2
at AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.0% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.7% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +2.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.7% | +11.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +2.0 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.1% | -8.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Indissoluble Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |