← AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Water AetherwingTier 1
at AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
decks
14
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
107
54-46-7
overall winrate
53.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.7%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1264
· range 1160–1437
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1194
Q3 1398
1685
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 47.1% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 14 | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 48.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.2% | +0.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.4% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.7% | +10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 42.4% | -4.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.5% | +3.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 66.8% | +10.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.8% | +9.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +5.9 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.3% | -11.7 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% | -5.3 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Languid Toadtroll, Chained Charge. Losers more often ran: Unbroken Mustang, Refreshing Charge, Stolen Chance.
Frozen Dismissal
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Languid Toadtroll
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Chained Charge
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Dissuading Aether
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Ranger Boots
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Unbroken Mustang
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Refreshing Charge
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Stolen Chance
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Drown in Aether
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Inert Sword
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Chained Charge | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Backstep | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Prudent Nock | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Ranger Boots | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fortifying Manashot | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Reposition | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Seaside Rangefinder | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Expulsion | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |