← AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Water AlliesTier 3
at AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 44.6% | -2.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 8 | 2-3-3 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.2% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -5.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tweedledee, Contrarian Poet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |