← AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
decks
23
(8.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
197
90-82-25
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1320
· median 1317
· range 1091–1563
(23 pilots with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1194
Q3 1398
1685
35% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
26% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 27 | 10-13-4 | 44.4% | 45.2% | 47.2% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 30 | 4-23-3 | 18.3% | 22.1% | 27.3% | -8.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.4% | 17 | 10-6-1 | 61.8% | 59.5% | 54.1% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.7% | 17 | 9-3-5 | 67.6% | 64.3% | 62.6% | +5.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.8% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 13 | 6-7-0 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 39.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 55.5% | +2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 10 | 5-2-3 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 54.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 41.7% | -4.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 57.5% | +3.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 34.2% | -8.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.3% | -9.5 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
Decklists · 23 from this event
The 23 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Three of Hearts, Unmake Duality, Undying Dreams. Losers more often ran: Devastating Blow, Library Witch, Cremation Ritual.
Three of Hearts
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Banned
Unmake Duality
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Undying Dreams
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Devastating Blow
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Library Witch
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Prismatic Edge
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 64 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three of Hearts | +0.88 | 7 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.88 | 0 | 7 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.75 | 6 | 0 | 2 | |
| Library Witch | -0.75 | 0 | 6 | 2 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.75 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.62 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 5 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Molten Echo | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Amethyst's Glow | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shardforged Blade | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crumbling Reign | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 |