← AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
decks
11
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
87
30-52-5
overall winrate
37.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.1%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1217
· median 1202
· range 1050–1389
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1194
Q3 1398
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
45% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 61.4% | +5.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 42.0% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 42.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.4% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 34.8% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.7% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 32.7% | -8.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -2.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Staggering Strike, Ignite Fate, Expose Darkness. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Mirror, Stolen Chance, Heated Vengeance.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Ignite Fate
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Expose Darkness
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Spark Alight
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Suzaku's Command
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Stolen Chance
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Heated Vengeance
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |