Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
decks
8
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
54
24-28-2
overall winrate
46.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
41.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1338
· median 1295
· range 1218–1587
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 8 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 21.3% | -13.8 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 35.2% | -7.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.9% | -2.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 63.6% | +6.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +2.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +11.0 |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Captivating Cutthroat, Zander, Deft Executor, Manic Zealot. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Arthur, Young Heir, Blazing Bowman.
Captivating Cutthroat
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Zander, Deft Executor
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Manic Zealot
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Mystic Purifier
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Arthur, Young Heir
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Blazing Bowman
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Blinding Orb
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Clumsy Apprentice
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Quicksilver Grail
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 91 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 71 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ash Filcher | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blitz Mage | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oppressive Presence | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Powered Sentinel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategic Planning | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inner Court Schemer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scorchfire Assassin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swerving Spring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |