Wind Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Toronto
decks
3
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31
16-12-3
overall winrate
56.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
55.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1359
· median 1352
· range 1317–1408
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 11 | 7-3-1 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 68.1% | +7.9 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.3% | +21.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.1% | -27.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.7% | -9.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
